Uncovering Barriers in Forecasting Uncertain Product Demand in the Supply Chain

This paper aims to provide insights into the barriers of forecasting uncertain product demand in supply chain by focusing on the relative importance of the barriers for businesses, particularly the forecast practitioners and prospective forecast implementers. A exploratory, qualitative approach was adopted within an Australian electrical manufacture. Data was gathered through semi-structured interviews with 20 participants from different departments, including forecasting practitioners, supplier and customer of the Australian electronics manufacturer. Thematic analysis was conducted to confirm some of the existing barriers reported in the literature and identify emerging barriers from practice in industry. The study reveals that there are more barriers to choosing the right forecasting system or method and the main reason for poor forecast performance is intertwined between cultural, communication, product, market, environmental and technological themes. These themes lend empirical insights into the barriers still faced in many organisation today. The identification of end to end barriers in forecasting uncertain product demand of the electrical manufacturing industry have not previously been studied in great depth. This paper sheds insight, provides new knowledge and contributes to academic thinking

Supporting the Forecasting of Uncertain Product Demand in Supply Chain with Digital Tools

University of Technology Sydney. Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology.This thesis examines the barriers faced in forecasting uncertain product demand within an electrical luminaire manufacturer in Australia. As luminaire technology has rapidly advanced in the last decade, the organisations' processes and systems for forecasting demand are no longer adequate. Forecasting uncertain product demand is a fundamental part of the supply chain's sales and operations planning process. The size and complexity of forecasting uncertain product demand are regarded as one of the more challenging activities in the supply chain. This is especially the case in the luminaire industry, where demand uncertainty, lack of historical data, and competitive environments coexist. Our industry research's general premise is that the process of forecasting uncertain product demand in the supply chain could be improved in terms of transparency, efficiency, effectiveness, and useability by embedding a form of a digital toolkit. Many of the existing methods, tools, and approaches in forecasting uncertain product demand are either too complex for practice or cannot solve the barriers. In this research, we take a design science approach to investigate both state-of-the-art and state-of-the-practice to identify the barriers in forecasting uncertain product demand. We then develop and evaluate a software toolkit to support practitioners in forecasting uncertain product demand. The first stage of the research is a systematic literature review involving a thorough review and critical analysis of existing theories. A pilot study is then conducted to gain in-depth information about the overall supply chain domain. This is followed by a field study at the Australian Luminaire Manufacturer (ALM ), which consists of semi-structured interviews with end-to-end supply chain stakeholders and the elicitation of stakeholder requirements which we prioritise by using the card-sorting method. Based on the requirements prioritised, a toolkit is designed and developed to support the organisation in forecasting uncertain product demand. The designed and developed toolkit provides a set of tools, yet a cohesive set of software components that can be utilised to support the forecasting of uncertain product demand. The toolkit includes market segmentation and market intelligence reporting, a full forecasting model, and a framework to make forecast adjustments. The final stage of the research involved the evaluation of the toolkit. This involved a focus group and questionnaire with end-users. The research findings were also presented to the organisations executive management. This thesis offers interesting insights and valuable directions for managers contemplating investing in improving accuracy in forecasting uncertain product demand in the supply chain

Left Lung Torsion: Complication of Lobar Resection for an Early Stage Lung Adenocarcinoma

Lobar torsion is a fatal but fortunately rare occurrence following lung resection. Early clinical signs and radiographic features may be nonspecific resulting in diagnostic delay. A high index of suspicion is vital for early diagnosis and intervention to avoid further parenchymal necrosis and deadly gangrene. We report a case of left lower lobe torsion in a 76-year-old female following elective upper lobectomy for underlying lung adenocarcinoma. Diagnosis was made following highly suggestive radiographic findings prompting bronchoscopy and revision thoracotomy. An emergency detorsion failed to restore lung viability and was followed by completion pneumonectomy. The patient recovered and was discharged on the seventh postoperative day

Phytochemical composition, biological activities and antioxidant potential of pomegranate fruit, juice and molasses: A review

International audiencePomegranate fruit and its derived products (seeds, juice and mollassess) have been traditionally used in the prevention and treatment of chronic conditions, including cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, Alzheimer's and arthritis. It has also been widely used in folk medicine as a remedy for conditions of the digestive tract, including parasitic worm infections, ulcers, diarrhea and aphthae. The pomegranate health benefits have been attributed to its bioactive compounds such as phenolic acids, flavonoids and tannins. These bioactive compounds were shown to have antioxidant and anti-diabetic activities as well as anti-inflammatory, anti-carcinogenic, anti-microbial, anti-diarrheal and neuro-protective properties. These pomegranate products are nowadays considered superfood and commonly used in many recipes in international cuisines. They are highly nutritious products rich in secondary metabolites with potent biological activities, which makes their study of great interest to researchers. The current review aimed to provide an up-to-date summary of findings of studies done to investigate the phytochemical composition biological activities, particularly antioxidant property of pomegranate and its products most importantly pomegranate molasses. In conclusion, this review shed the light on the rich phytochemical composition and many potent biological activities especially the antioxidant potential of pomegranate and its products